Modeling of the Risk of wolf (Canis lupus) Spatial attacks in the summer and autumn To Persian Gazelle (Gazella subgutturosa) in the Qaraviz no hunting area (Kermanshah Province)

Document Type : Animal environment

Authors

Faculty of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Hormozgan University, P.O. Box: 3995, Bandar Abbas, Iran

Abstract

Wolf (Canis lupus) is the largest of the canidae in Iran, is considered opportunistic species with high compatibility and one of the main predator of ungulates in their habitats. It seems wolves prefer habitats which have a decent population of ungulates. Persian Gazelle (Gazella subgutturosa) is the largest herbivore in Iran's steppe plains. Habitats of Persian Gazelle in the west of Iran and in Qaraviz no hunting area adjacent to country of Iraqproportional to the dispersion mounds. In this investigation area boundary were considered equal to ultimate limit of distribution of gazelles During the summer and autumn seasons of 2013. Data of wolf attacks points was collected and it is divided into two sets, training data and test data. Then entered the model (Maxent) as geographic information system along with summer and autumn habitat suitability maps, Gazelles density and other 8 variables. The results of the score matrix and Jackknife analysis have characterize that distance from water sources and springs is the most important factor in habitat suitability of the summer and autumn  and also possibility of the wolf spatial attacks. The results of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis and the area under the ROC curve (AUC) in the average runs, characterized which model has been successful in the prediction of attacks (AUC=0/949). Results show that areas with high-gradient, the high density of gazelles, near to the springs and watering places and north directions, have high-risk of Wolf attacks.

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