Future Study of Livestock Industry in Khorasan Razavi Province using the Critical Uncertainty Approach and the DEMATEL-MOORA Technique

Document Type : Other


1 Assistant Professor, College of Farabi, University of Tehran, Iran

2 College of Farabi, University of Tehran, Iran

3 Imam Khomeini International University, Department of Industrial Management

4 university of qom



Livestock industry as one of the sub-sectors of agriculture in the world has a significant growth and its entrepreneurship in job creation, value creation, human nutrition, human and community health and in general its irreplaceable role in the economy has always attracted the attention of governments. In our country, despite the protections defined in the laws, this industry is still in a tight spot due to the lack of infrastructure, lack of coherent and sustainable management, superficiality of basic and macro issues and lack of prioritization in planning, and has faced activists with some ambiguity about the future. Therefore, proper planning in this area requires strategic and forward-looking decisions. For this purpose, Future Study approach was used to formulate future scenarios for the livestock industry in Khorasan Razavi province and the critical uncertainty method, which is one of the common techniques for extracting key factors, was used. In the next step, DEMATEL method was used to determine the interactions of key indicators. The scenarios of the present study were developed based on two macro-policies of government and climate which are scenario 1, scenario 2, scenario 3 and scenario 4. Finally, Using the Moora method, the most probable scenario, which is scenario 4, was determined, in which both the amount of precipitation is reduced and the government's macro-policies do not move towards optimism and productivity.