آینده پژوهی صنعت دامداری استان خراسان رضوی با استفاده از رویکرد عدم قطعیت بحرانی و تکنیک DEMATEL-MOORA

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 گروه مدیریت صنعتی و مالی، دانشکده مدیریت و حسابداری، پردیس فارابی دانشگاه تهران، قم، ایران

2 گروه مدیریت صنعتی، دانشکده علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه بین المللی امام خمینی (ره) قزوین، قزوین، ایران

3 دانشکده مدیریت، دانشگاه قم، قم، ایران

چکیده

صنعت دامداری به عنوان یکی از زیر مجموعه‌های زراعت در سطح جهانی از رشد چشم‌گیری برخوردار بوده و کارآفرینی آن در اشتغال‌زایی، ایجاد ارزش ‌افزوده، تغذیه بشر، سلامت انسان و جامعه و به طور کلی نقش بی بدیل آن در اقتصاد باعث گشته همواره مورد توجه دولت‌ها قرار گیرد. این صنعت در کشور ما علی‌رغم حمایت‌های تعریف شده در قوانین، هم‌چنان از نبود زیرساخت‌ها، عدم مدیریت منسجم و پایدار، سطحی‌نگری به مسائل پایه‌ای و کلان و فقدان اولویت‌بندی در برنامه‌ریزی‌ها در تنگنا بوده و فعالان را با نوعی ابهام نسبت به آینده کاری مواجه نموده است، درحالی که با سرمایه‌گذاری‌های فعلی، ظرفیت‌ها و پتانسیل‌های بالقوه و امکانات موجود می توان با اصلاح زیرساخت‌ها، حمایت‌های تسهیلاتی و اعتباری از سوی دولت و فرهنگ ‌سازی، جهت منحنی را به سمت رشد و تعالی بیش تر سوق داد. لذا برنامه ریزی صحیح در این حوزه نیازمند اتخاذ تصمیمات راهبردی و آینده نگارانه است. بدین منظور از رویکرد آینده پژوهی برای تدوین سناریوهای آینده صنعت دامداری استان خراسان رضوی استفاده شد و از روش عدم قطعیت بحرانی، که یکی از تکنیک های متداول برای استخراج عوامل کلیدی است، استفاده شد. در مرحله بعدی برای تعیین اثرات متقابل شاخص های کلیدی از روش دیمتل استفاده شد.سناریوهای تحقیق حاضر براساس دو عامل سیاست های کلان دولت و اوضاع جوی تدوین شدند که عبارت اند از سناریوی 1، سناریوی 2، سناریوی 3 و سناریوی 4. در نهایت، با به کارگیری روش مورا، محتمل ترین سناریو که سناریوی 4 است تعیین گردید، که در این سناریو هم میزان نزولات جوی کاهش یافته و هم سیاست‌های کلان دولت به سمت بهینگی و بهره ور بودن حرکت نمی کنند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Future Study of Livestock Industry in Khorasan Razavi Province using the Critical Uncertainty Approach and the DEMATEL-MOORA Technique

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mohammad Reza Fathi 1
  • Somayeh Razi moheb saraj 1
  • Mahdi Nasrollahi 2
  • Mohammad Hasan Maleki 3
1 Department of Industrial and Financial Management, Faculty of Management and Accounting, College of Farabi, University of Tehran, Qom, Iran
2 Department of Industrial Management, Faculty of Social Sciences, Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin, Iran
3 Faculty of Management, University of Qom, Qom, Iran
چکیده [English]

Livestock industry as one of the sub-sectors of agriculture in the world has a significant growth and its entrepreneurship in job creation, value creation, human nutrition, human and community health and in general its irreplaceable role in the economy has always attracted the attention of governments. In our country, despite the protections defined in the laws, this industry is still in a tight spot due to the lack of infrastructure, lack of coherent and sustainable management, superficiality of basic and macro issues and lack of prioritization in planning, and has faced activists with some ambiguity about the future. While with the current investments, capacities and potentials and existing facilities, it is possible to lead the curve to more growth and excellence by reforming the infrastructure, facilities and credit support from the government and culture building. Therefore, proper planning in this area requires strategic and forward-looking decisions. For this purpose, Future Study approach was used to formulate future scenarios for the livestock industry in Khorasan Razavi province and the critical uncertainty method, which is one of the common techniques for extracting key factors, was used. In the next step, DEMATEL method was used to determine the interactions of key indicators. The scenarios of the present study were developed based on two macro-policies of government and climate which are scenario 1, scenario 2, scenario 3 and scenario 4. Finally, Using the Moora method, the most probable scenario, which is scenario 4, was determined, in which both the amount of precipitation is reduced and the government's macro-policies do not move towards optimism and productivity.
 

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Future Study
  • Scenario Planning
  • Critical Uncertainty Approach
  • DEMATEL
  • MOORA
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